Assessing the new ‘Cold War’ with China

On a recent edition of the Hoover Institution’s program Uncommon Knowledge, host Peter Robinson interviewed former Trump national security officials H.R. McMaster and Matthew Pottinger about the new Cold War between the U.S. and China.

By Francis P. Sempa*

The mood was somber as both men

McMaster and Pottinger, both of whom served in the U.S. military prior to working in the Trump administration, said that China’s rise is in part due to long-held American illusions that China’s economic liberalization would result in political liberalization. For decades, Wall Street, big-tech companies, and Silicon Valley invested heavily in Chinese state-affiliated corporations, earning huge profits for themselves and financially fueling China’s economy and military build-up. All the while, CCP leaders cracked down on political dissent whenever and wherever it appeared. CCP leaders were determined that there would be no Chinese Gorbachev.

The former Trump officials also agreed that under President Xi Jinping, China has tightened its control over its citizens, reestablishing a Maoist Orwellian police state that has “crushed” freedom in Hong Kong, committed genocide against the Uigurs, and is attempting to intimidate Taiwan into political submission. They also both agreed that Chinese leaders still believe in communism and see their continued rule in Leninist terms. The CCP distorts history (especially the Party’s responsibility for the massive death and destruction caused by the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution) and appeals to nationalism when it suits their interests.

Pottinger also opined that the CCP fears the Chinese people, which is why they cracked down on the free Chinese in Hong Kong and why the free Chinese on Taiwan are seen as a threat to the CCP’s continued rule on the mainland. Pottinger also expressed the concern that President Xi, knowing the fragility of CCP rule, may seek to leverage its current power now before the internal weaknesses grow stronger. China would not be the first great power in history that sought political stability at home by fomenting an international crisis.

The CCP’s fear is coupled with ambition that is commonly expressed as overcoming the century of humiliation (the hundred years before Mao seized power in 1949) and replacing the U.S. as the world’s leading power. The CCP even appeals to China’s imperial past, where the Middle Kingdom was considered the center of the world, with outside powers paying obeisance to China’s ruling class.

The key flashpoint in the new Cold War, according to McMaster, is Taiwan. China has recently conducted military exercises near and above Taiwan, with fighter planes entering Taiwan’s air defense zone and an aircraft carrier group cruising near the island. The host, Peter Robinson, asked McMaster and Pottinger if they agreed with British historian Niall Ferguson’s recent observation that Taiwan could become the “American Suez Crisis,” i.e., the U.S. may find that it is unable to successfully defend the island against a Chinese invasion. Both McMaster and Pottinger stated that China might find it very difficult to invade Taiwan and sustain such an invasion. They compared a potential Chinese invasion of the island to Hitler’s ill-fated Operation Seal Lion (the planned invasion of Great Britain that never happened due to Germany’s inability to gain control of the air and sea separating occupied France from Britain).

McMaster and Pottinger both stated that Trump was the first American president in the post-Cold War world to recognize that China was not going to politically liberalize but instead was seeking to replace the U.S. as the world’s leading power. McMaster opined that the Biden administration appears to be following Trump’s lead regarding China.

The program host Peter Robinson concluded by quoting George F. Kennan’s optimistic assessment of America’s ability and willingness to successfully contain the Soviet Union, comparing it to a recent editorial in the Economist that said the American-led world order is ending. Here, McMaster and Pottinger were optimistic that Kennan’s vision of America’s strengths was more accurate than the Economist’s forecast of America’s decline. We’ll see.

*Francis P. Sempa is the author of Geopolitics: From the Cold War to the 21stCentury, America’s Global Role: Essays and Reviews on National Security, Geopolitics and War, and Somewhere in France, Somewhere in Germany: A Combat Soldier’s Journey through the Second World War. He has written lengthy introductions to two of Mahan’s books, and has written on historical and foreign policy topics for The Diplomat, the University Bookman, Joint Force Quarterly, the Asian Review of Books, the New York Journal of Books, the Claremont Review of Books, American Diplomacy, the Washington Times, and other publications. He is an attorney, an adjunct professor of political science at Wilkes University, and a contributing editor to American Diplomacy.

Source: realcleardefense.com

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