Mitsotakis Faces Tough Choices on Election Timing

The political atmosphere in Greece continues to deteriorate for Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his New Democracy government, particularly in the wake of the OPEKEPE scandal—a controversy involving mismanagement of EU agricultural funds.

The pressure is intensifying, with expectations that additional case files related to the affair are imminent. At the same time, reports suggest that the European Public Prosecutor’s Office is now investigating the possible misuse of funds from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility, deepening the sense of crisis.

Inside the Maximos Mansion—the official seat of the Greek Prime Minister—officials continue to deny any possibility of early elections. But these denials often sound more like superstition than conviction, as if acknowledging the chance of early elections might make them inevitable. Behind closed doors, the leadership appears to be grappling with a highly uncertain political horizon.

Prime Minister Mitsotakis is reportedly considering three scenarios as he attempts to chart a way forward. The first scenario contemplates early elections in 2026. Any snap vote in 2025 is viewed as politically catastrophic for New Democracy. Although the party holds a slim parliamentary majority of 155 seats, aided by support from former “Spartan” independents, current projections suggest it would be hard-pressed to retain even 120 to 125 seats in a new election. With that in mind, Mitsotakis is preparing key policy announcements for this year’s Thessaloniki International Fair, targeting groups seen as part of the party’s traditional base.

He is expected to gauge the public’s reaction through end-of-year polling before making any decisions. Elections would likely only be brought forward if the political cost of remaining in power begins to outweigh the risks of losing control. Yet, even if elections are held in 2026, the real challenge may come the day after: forming a viable government would be far from straightforward. PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis has firmly ruled out any post-election alliance with Mitsotakis, making a durable coalition nearly impossible.

A second option under consideration involves elections in early 2027, just before Greece assumes the rotating presidency of the European Union in June of that year. Brussels generally frowns on member states holding elections while occupying the EU presidency, in order to ensure stable governance. But even this timing would not solve the central dilemma—how to form a functioning government after the votes are counted. Coalition talks would likely be contentious, especially when it comes to choosing a Prime Minister, a point that could become a major obstacle in any negotiation.

The third and most dramatic possibility is a leadership handover, modeled after what came to be known in Greece as the “Simitis scenario.” In 2004, then-Prime Minister Kostas Simitis voluntarily stepped down and passed leadership of both the party and the premiership to George Papandreou ahead of national elections. Should Mitsotakis take a similar path, most observers believe the role would be handed to current Minister of National Defense, Nikos Dendias.

However, such a move would mark a sharp break with Mitsotakis' own political instincts and leadership style, which has always favored personal control and direct accountability. As such, while this option remains on the table, it appears as uncertain as it is provocative.