Greece’s Tourism Outlook Faces Uncertainty Amid U.S. Tariff Fallout

While Greek exports of food, fuel, and metals to the U.S. are relatively limited, the real danger lies in the broader financial consequences of the tariffs, particularly their potential to weaken the U.S. dollar and reduce the purchasing power

Greece’s biggest economic risk from Donald Trump’s tariffs may not be in the realm of trade at all—but rather in tourism.

While Greek exports of food, fuel, and metals to the U.S. are relatively limited, the real danger lies in the broader financial consequences of the tariffs, particularly their potential to weaken the U.S. dollar and reduce the purchasing power of American consumers. The dollar has already shown signs of softening, and with the cost of imported goods expected to rise due to higher duties, American households are likely to feel the squeeze.

This is particularly relevant for Greece, which welcomed nearly 1.55 million American tourists in 2024—a 10% increase from the previous year. These visitors are not only numerous but among the country’s highest-spending travelers. If Trump follows through with his tariff agenda, that flow could slow dramatically in 2025. In fact, early signals are already emerging: Greek yachting and luxury maritime tourism operators are reporting a noticeable decline in bookings from the U.S. for the upcoming summer season.

Still, the broader picture for Greece’s 2025 tourism season begins on a strong note. The country is launching the summer with a record 28.2 million scheduled international airline seats, a 4.6% increase compared to 2024. Demand from core European markets remains solid, and interest from the United States, the Middle East, and Southeastern Europe continues to gain strength. The United Kingdom remains Greece’s largest market, representing 20% of all international capacity, followed by Germany and Italy, which both posted moderate year-on-year growth.

The United States stands out as the fastest-growing long-haul market, with a striking 18.6% increase in scheduled airline seats, reaching 727,000. Other countries showing strong growth include Israel, Saudi Arabia, and emerging markets like Albania, Armenia, and Georgia, the latter more than doubling its air travel capacity to Greece.

However, not all markets are expanding. France, Poland, and Denmark have all registered year-over-year declines, suggesting that not every part of Europe is riding the same tourism wave.

Among Greek destinations, Thessaloniki recorded the largest growth in capacity, up 11.4% from last year. Athens followed with an 8.3% increase, while islands like Corfu, Chania, and Rhodes also posted notable gains. More cosmopolitan spots like Mykonos and Heraklion saw only marginal increases, and tourist-heavy Santorini actually experienced a significant decline, with 11.6% fewer seats scheduled compared to 2024.

One emerging trend is a shift in travel seasonality. The strongest growth in scheduled airline seats is being seen in the early months of the season—April, May, and June—indicating a slow but steady extension of the traditional summer travel period. This pattern mirrors the longer shoulder seasons observed during autumn in recent years.

Looking at the broader competitive landscape, Greece remains a mid-tier player in terms of volume among Mediterranean destinations. Spain leads with nearly 83 million seats scheduled for the season, followed by Italy and France. Greece, with its 28.2 million seats, sits ahead of Portugal, Croatia, Cyprus, and Malta. Notably, the smaller destinations are experiencing the highest percentage increases in capacity, while larger markets remain relatively stable. France is the exception, with growth in airline seats hovering just above flat.