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BOND MARKET RECAP
5/16/2014

The Treasury market stood up against another US economic report that could have prompted a round of profit-
taking selling. In fact, both Housing starts and Permits were stronger than expected and the Housing Starts
figures actually extended their streak of positive monthly results to 3 months. However, Treasuries continued to
get the benefit of the doubt on the slowing/no slowing

Technical Outlook
BONDS (JUN) 05/19/2014: Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The near-term upside target is at 138-010. With a reading over 70, the 9- day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 137-230 and 138-010, while 1st support hits today at 137-080 and below there at 137-020.
10 YR TREASURY NOTES (JUN) 05/19/2014: Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered
overbought levels. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The
market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The near-term upside objective is at 126-
035. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 125-285 and 126-035, while 1st support hits today at 125-190 and below there at 125-160.

STOCK INDICES RECAP
5/16/2014
June S&P E-Mini finished up 7.75 at 1875, 0.75 off the high and 13.75 up from the low.
US equity markets experienced a choppy trading session that took on a slightly positive slant. Perhaps some of
the indecision in the market came with May option contract expiration. Meanwhile, strong earnings from JC
Penney and Nordstrom late Thursday evening provided a source of support for the retail sector. The June S&P
500 climbed to its highest levels of the morning in the wake of April US Housing Starts data that showed a much
larger than expected 13.2% month-over-month increase. It is possible that some of that optimism might have
been watered down by a private survey on US Consumer Sentiment that came in quite a bit below expectations.
The major S&P sector indices were equally split between winners and losers. For the week, the June S&P 500
saw an early push into a new contract high at 1898.50 that was followed by a rather sharp 39.00 point break into Thursday’s low of 1859.00.

Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (JUN) 05/19/2014: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if
support levels are taken out. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving
average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next downside objective is now at 1857.65. The next area of resistance is around 1881.80 and 1885.65, while 1st support hits today at 1867.80 and below there at 1857.65.
S&P E-MINI (JUN) 05/19/2014: Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The close over the
pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next downside target is now at 1857.13. The next area of
resistance is around 1882.00 and 1886.12, while 1st support hits today at 1867.50 and below there at 1857.13.
NASDAQ (JUN) 05/19/2014: The market now above the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend
has turned up. Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The
market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend has turned up. There could
be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next downside
objective is 3517.88. The next area of resistance is around 3586.75 and 3611.87, while 1st support hits today at 3539.75 and below there at 3517.88.

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