Fitch Boosts Greece's Economic Outlook, Citing Recovery Momentum

07:46 17/5/2025 - Πηγή: iEfimerida

Fitch Ratings has upgraded Greece's economic outlook to positive from stable, the agency announced Friday, signaling increased confidence in the nation's recovery due to ongoing reforms and a strong fiscal position.

This upgrade aligns with similar acknowledgments from other international agencies regarding Greece's structural improvements, fiscal discipline, enhanced tax

collection, and efforts to combat tax evasion.

Fitch's latest report projects a fiscal surplus of 1.3% of GDP and a primary surplus of 4.8% for Greece in 2024, exceeding previous expectations, and forecasts a budget surplus of around 1% through 2025 and 2026.

The agency also highlighted Greece's significant reduction in public debt, the largest among Fitch-rated countries since the pandemic, with €36 billion in cash reserves positioning the country well to meet debt obligations over the next three years.

Fitch anticipates Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio will fall to 120% by 2030.

The government's fiscal strategy was commended as prudent and reliable, with the latest medium-term fiscal plan aligning with revised EU fiscal rules. Furthermore, Fitch projects Greece's economy to grow by 2.3% in 2024, significantly above the Eurozone average, with growth expected to remain above 2% in 2025 and 2026, supported by rising incomes, increased employment, and sustained investment.

While noting potential external economic risks in Europe, Fitch sees Greece on a stable path toward economic maturity and increased global trust.

The Ministry of National Economy and Finance indicated a commitment to maintaining this course with a clear plan for strong and sustainable growth benefiting all citizens.

The final ratings review for the first quarter is expected from Scope Ratings on May 30.

Fitch identified potential negative factors that could reverse the positive outlook, such as a slowdown in debt reduction due to fiscal loosening or significant unforeseen liabilities, and severe economic shocks impacting growth or external balances.

Conversely, factors that could further improve the rating include greater confidence in rapid debt reduction driven by strong surpluses and improvements in Greece's medium-term growth potential through increased investment and continued reforms.

This upgrade by Fitch underscores the growing international recognition of Greece's economic turnaround, reflecting improved financial indicators and restored investor confidence.

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